PROPRIETARY METHODOLOGY
Interpretation is the product.
Data is abundant and cheap. What is scarce is a reading that states where it came from, how confident it is, and what it does not cover. Every claim we publish carries an evidence seal, and no commercial relationship shapes what that seal says.
MARKET PYRAMID
Five layers, from population to treatment line.
Market size is built layer by layer, by line of care. Each layer carries a declared source and an explicit confidence level, separating observed fact from inference and projection.
| Nº | Layer | What it measures | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Total population | Raw population base | IBGE |
| 2 | Theoretical prevalence | Epidemiological estimate of the condition | Peer-reviewed studies (PubMed, BVS/BIREME, Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia, medRxiv) |
| 3 | Diagnosed population | Who has actually received a diagnosis | ANS (procedures and ICD) combined with other sources |
| 4 | Population with access | Who has access to some treatment | ANS open data, filtered by region and plan type |
| 5 | Population by treatment line | Therapeutic, surgical, pharmacological | Studies plus the TISS base |
Layer 2 is the central difference. We trace and cite the epidemiological study behind each number, instead of presenting an estimate with no verifiable scientific basis.
CROSS-TREATMENT COMPETITION
A molecule competes with a surgery, and the other way round.
Inside a line of care the client sees the complete map, not one product category in isolation. Options that dispute the same patient are read side by side.
Surgical reference price
Built from the TISS base.
Pharmacological reference price
Built from CMED.
Common basis
Both are normalised so the comparison holds inside the line of care.
22+
sources mapped
3
expansion fronts in design
A1–D
evidence taxonomy
EVIDENCE TAXONOMY
Every claim carries a seal.
Each statement receives a source-quality seal from A1 to D. A1 is a primary official act; D is an unverified report kept only when its absence would distort the picture.
The nature of the conclusion is a separate dimension from the quality of the source. A projection built on A1 evidence is still a projection, and it is labelled as one.
SOURCE QUALITY
NATURE OF THE CLAIM
DOCUMENTED PRESENCE INDEX
How far a product is formally present in the Brazilian market.
The unit of analysis is brand × presentation × state. Every layer is presence attested by a primary official document — which is why the whole indicator carries an A1 seal.
| Layer | What it measures | Source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory presence | Valid sanitary registration | Anvisa | 25% |
| Price presence | SKU with a published, valid price ceiling | CMED | 25% |
| Public presence | Participation in government procurement | PNCP | 50% |
Public presence carries the largest weight because it is the only one of the three layers that records effective commercial movement, not merely authorisation.
INDICATOR DISCIPLINE
- 0 to 100 scale
- Normalisation over a rolling 26-week window
- “In calibration” label while the history is still building
- Mandatory layer-by-layer decomposition on any relevant movement
- No estimated layer: if the source did not publish it, the layer does not score
FRONT IN DESIGN
Retail presence is not part of the index yet.
The retail presence layer — effective availability in physical chains and e-commerce — is under development and does not compose the current index. Until there is reproducible first-party collection (B1 seal), the indicator measures documented presence, not availability to the patient. We state that openly.
LIMITS
What the indicator does not do.
The indicator does not replace audited databases of sales, prescriptions or market share. It must be read alongside the Forecast Confidence and the underlying evidence.
Want the full methodology document?
We send the complete specification, including calibration criteria and known limitations.